Welcome to Millennium III
At the end of every century almost everybody in the western countries reflects on the future of themselves and society. Among large parts of the population worries prevail. Doomsayers get a lot of attention, religious sects adhering to dark legends and absurd apocalyptic theories suddenly find it easier to attract new members. Even some so-called scientists come up with prophetic predictions that cannot stand objective investigation. Fortunately most people, both academics and members of lower classes, are sensible enough to stay calm and think rationally. They are not afraid of the turn of the century. But they take it as a chance to carefully think about the current problems of mankind and possible solutions to them.
All of these phenomenons also appear now, in 1999. Although it is actually still almost two years to the beginning of the new century, the year 2000 or 2K is the beginning of a new era in the heads of many people who live in countries that use the Gregorian Calendar. The usual hype known from history books is intensified by the fact that in 2001, not only a new century but also a new millennium will start - the third millennium in the de-facto standard calendar.
At the dusk of this century, there is a considerable amount of as yet unsolved problems, and a number of problems are approaching with technological change.
One of the currently prevalent problems connected with the year 2000 you hear a lot about in the media is actually a one-time event, but a one-time event with unforseeable consequences: the Y2K bug. The cause of this problem is ancient computer technology that uses tricks to save some memory at the expense of usability: it will not work correctly after the year 1999. Assuming that nobody would use their programs in 2000 any more, the programmers decided it would be enough to store only the last two digits of the year. This was a fatal decision as a lot of this technology is still used. The consequence is that after 1999, these computers and other electronic equipment will switch back to 1900, which can lead to malfunction of the software or the machine. This is more or less serious, depending on the purpose of the machine. If the machine is run by a small company, it will 'only' create chaos in their data base. By contrast, if the concerned machine is used for operating a missile-control system, the Y2K bug might have a disastrous impact.
Fortunately, most of the governments and big companies have fixed or replaced the troubling software with products that do not contain this flaw. Yet it is possible that some countries and companies encounter problems. The people least prepared for Y2K are private PC users who are not or are only partly aware of the problems that might be encountered. However, the damage usually will not be that great.
Most new software and electronic equipment is Y2K-compliant. Still there are some notable exceptions: For instance, computer magazines have reported about common computer operating systems and standard application software, the latest versions of which are not fully Y2K-compliant. The big companies responsible for this mess abuse this as a chance to sell expensive updates only needed to mend their own faults.
This leads to another worry: namely that a single person or company might get too much power and gain control over the market in the end. This fear is embodied by Microsoft's chairman William Henry Gates III., better known as Bill Gates. His de-facto monopoly on operating systems for home users and office software plus his struggling to gain a similar position in the Internet browser market arouses frightening visions both among his competitors and his customers. Arbitrary marketing policies and licence fees have now even caused the U.S. government to interfere. An exceptional anti-trust law suit similar only to the law suit against the telephone company AT&T will decide about the future of the Microsoft Corporation.
A century ago, one person was in a very similar position as Bill Gates is in nowadays: John D. Rockefeller, an oil tycoon who was fond of questionable marketing practices. His name was closely connected to the Industrial Revolution that had led to the Industrial Age a short while before. Likewise, for many people Bill Gates is a symbol of the forthcoming Information Age; after all, he is the one who made it possible that the Internet could reach a lot of people by establishing the Personal Computer in the mass-market.
The arrival of the Information Age is something that will have a vast impact on our lives in the next decade. Like the Industrial Revolution, it is not entirely regarded as positive. Many people, mainly representatives of older generations, are worried whether it will split our society into two new classes, the technological haves and the technological have-nots. Also, the fear that we could become too dependent on technology is widespread. The Y2K bug shows how dangerous a technical flaw can already be for entire mankind. On the other hand, the Internet has many obvious benefits, most importantly easy and fast communication worldwide. The process of globalization that started several decades ago is speeding up rapidly. Will this help to teach more about other cultures and lead to more understanding? Will it reduce prejudice and finally create a world of peace and prosperity?
The longing for peace is one of the wishes that is expressed at the dawn of every new century. Yet there has been no century, not even a decade without war in some part of the world yet. Especially a hundred years ago people were very optimistic that the new century would become more peaceful than ever. History tells us the opposite.
Although the Cold War has ended, there are still a lot of conflicts in this world that could lead to national crises, civil wars, international wars or even another world war. Former U.S. Foreign Secretary Henry Kissinger has lately warned us of the possibility of a war between China and the western world. Indeed there have been a lot of incidents that can be interpreted as indicators of this theory. The radical, nationalist protests of masses of the Chinese population against the U.S.'s bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War shows the dangerous tendencies in this 1.2-billion country. Chauvinism and violent racism seem to become the ersatz ideology for the dying communism in the world's biggest dictatorship. Several historians compare China's massive armament and aggressive foreign affairs with Germany at the eve of World War I.
Other serious problems include the destruction of environment and AIDS, which now is what tuberculosis was a century ago. In a more distant future but perhaps already in the course of the 21st century, we will also face the first results of advanced genetic engineering. This will launch a new era with an even greater impact on our whole lives than the Information Age. Probably this is the most important issue we have to deal with in the next century. Luckily we still have a lot of time to carefully consider the risks and benefits of genetics.
First, I guess, we should enjoy all the parties and events that will celebrate the year 2000 and the next millennium. And then every one of us should work on designing his personal future life.